Researcher's Bio
Gary Kromer
Former Director of Research, Fort Worth Star-Telegram;
Past President, Newspaper Association of American Research Federation
Gary Kromer holds a doctorate in Mass Communications from Syracuse University. He has been a member of the adjunct faculty at Texas Christian University in Fort Worth, Kings College in Wilkes-Barre, and Syracuse University. Most recently he served as director of research for the Fort Worth Star-Telegram where he served for 23 years. He was responsible for and involved in all primary and secondary research collection and analysis – strategic and tactical – for the print, online and niche product and all divisions of the company. Kromer also worked for Capital Cities, Capital Cities/ABC, the Walt Disney Company and Knight Ridder. He is a member of the AEJMC and is a past president of the Newspaper Association of the International Marketing Association North American division.
Forum Leader
Esther Thorson
Associate Dean for Graduate Studies and Research, Missouri School of Journalism
"Is The Sky Really Falling for Newspaper Companies?"
Newspapers are not dying, although some newspaper companies may fail, Kromer said. Many newspapers, particularly medium and smaller ones, still generate healthy profits. At the same time, some newspaper companies are failing because of debt assumed in the last 5-10 years during “poorly timed acquisitions and expansions.” Kromer said that corporate failures to promote innovation, maintain adequate levels of employment, and offer enough pertinent local information have exacerbated the declines.
Kromer argued that newspapers do not have an audience problem but they have a revenue problem. Although daily and Sunday newspaper circulation peaked in 1990, newspaper readership has remained steady by some measures, with 86 million people reading a newspaper on an average weekday and 98.4 million reading a Sunday newspaper.
Nonetheless, said Kromer, newspapers are in for a bumpy ride when it comes to advertising revenues, which have fallen from $48.2 billion in 2004 to $37.9 billion in 2008. While other local media such as broadcasting, cable, and Yellow Pages have also seen ad revenue declines, newspapers have been the hardest hit, losing 44 percent of their revenue base since 2004 vs. 18 percent on average for other local media.
Looking ahead, Kromer said that online ad revenue is not necessarily the answer to reverse newspaper fortunes. Online ad revenues account for between 8-12 percent of overall ad revenues at newspapers, but the online percentages are often rising primarily because print ad revenue percentages are falling. In addition, the typical user of a local newspaper online website spends only 5 to 8 minutes a month on the site.
The future newspaper business model will include niche publications such as those targeted by geography, demographics, and behaviors, said Kromer. It will also include more coverage of the core readership area. Digital features of the new business model will include websites targeted by niche, topic, and micro-local areas in addition to the newspaper’s core website. It will also include social media and blogs, as well as distribution by wireless, e-publications, and e-readers such as Kindle.
Kromer said economists do not expect a general economic turnaround before the second quarter of 2010.
Contact Gary Kromer at 817-937-5155 or gary.kromer@windstream.net